With a warming climate, we have observed global sea level rise due to 1) melting ice sheets and glaciers and 2) seawater expanding at higher temperatures (NASA). Sea level rise is a global threat, but this project will examine sea level rise at a more local level -- specifically, in Plum Island Estuary in Massachusetts.
Plum Island Estuary (PIE) is the largest contiguous salt marsh in the Northeastern U.S. and an important habitat for many species. In the event of rising sea levels, more saline water (salty ocean water) would enter the marsh and potentially compromise plants' growing environment (Jacobson). Marshes are also very efficient at capturing carbon, making them important ecosystems to protect (NOAA).
This project will look at monthly mean sea level data in PIE from 1921 to 2018 to determine whether sea level rise is occuring in PIE. Regression will then be used to estimate sea levels in the next few years by using time as an input feature and sea level as an output feature.
This data is taken from the Environmental Data Initiative, the main repository for PIE data. It provides robust data on sea level from 1921 to 2018, and will be very informative in tracking/predicting sea level rise in PIE.
import pandas as pd
df_slr = pd.read_csv('MON-BO-SeaLevel-Monthly-MSL.csv')
df_slr.head(10)
| Station | Year | Month | Highest | MHHW | MHW | MSL | MTL | MLW | MLLW | Lowest | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8443970 | 1921 | 1 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.228 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 1 | 8443970 | 1921 | 2 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.268 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 2 | 8443970 | 1921 | 3 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.335 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 3 | 8443970 | 1921 | 4 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.277 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 4 | 8443970 | 1921 | 5 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.198 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 5 | 8443970 | 1921 | 6 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.222 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 6 | 8443970 | 1921 | 7 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.240 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 7 | 8443970 | 1921 | 8 | 1.759 | NaN | 1.143 | -0.298 | -0.338 | -1.822 | NaN | -2.447 |
| 8 | 8443970 | 1921 | 9 | 1.698 | NaN | 1.183 | -0.262 | -0.301 | -1.783 | NaN | -2.447 |
| 9 | 8443970 | 1921 | 10 | 1.820 | NaN | 1.177 | -0.274 | -0.308 | -1.792 | NaN | -2.356 |
| Attribute | Description |
|---|---|
| Station | numerical identifier for the station data was collected from |
| Year | year (YYYY) |
| Month | month (numerical) |
| Highest | highest tide of the month |
| MHHW | mean higher-high water (average of the highest tides each day over the month) |
| MHW | mean high water (average of all high tides over the month) |
| MSL | mean sea level |
| MTL | mean of MHW and MLW |
| MLW | mean low water (average of all low tides over the month) |
| MLLW | mean lower-low water (average of the lowest tides each day over the month) |
| Lowest | lowest tide of the month |
Giblin, A. and Plum Island Ecosystems LTER. 2019. Monthly mean sea level data (1921-2018) relative to NAVD88 for Boston, Massachusetts, NOAA/NOS ver 7. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/94d41263ef3f9f19e9ccd83d89b422fd (Accessed 2023-02-23).
Jacobson, R. What happens to a marsh when sea levels rise? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/will-salt-marshes survive-rising-sea-levels (accessed Feb 23, 2023).
NASA. Sea level. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ (accessed Feb 23, 2023).
NOAA. Coastal Blue Carbon. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coastal-blue-carbon/ (accessed Feb 23, 2023).