Sports are one of the most exciting things for humans to watch. Ever since the Greeks, we have been watching the peaks of human talent and strength go head to head for our amusement. Part of watching sports is predicting player and game results. In our friend groups, we enjoy betting with each other to see who can predict the best. But what if we could use data to predict NBA results? Using these data sets, we can analyze professional predictions and hold them against real results to see whether we have any real predictions. We can even compare them to sports betting, seeing whether the general public is a good predictor of NBA games.
import pandas as pd
forecast = pd.read_csv('nba_elo_latest.csv')
raptor_player = pd.read_csv('latest_RAPTOR_by_player.csv')
raptor_team = pd.read_csv('latest_RAPTOR_by_team.csv')
forecast
| date | season | neutral | playoff | team1 | team2 | elo1_pre | elo2_pre | elo_prob1 | elo_prob2 | ... | carm-elo2_post | raptor1_pre | raptor2_pre | raptor_prob1 | raptor_prob2 | score1 | score2 | quality | importance | total_rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2022-10-18 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | BOS | PHI | 1657.639749 | 1582.247327 | 0.732950 | 0.267050 | ... | NaN | 1693.243079 | 1641.876729 | 0.670612 | 0.329388 | 126.0 | 117.0 | 96 | 13 | 55 |
| 1 | 2022-10-18 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | GSW | LAL | 1660.620307 | 1442.352444 | 0.862011 | 0.137989 | ... | NaN | 1615.718147 | 1472.173711 | 0.776502 | 0.223498 | 123.0 | 109.0 | 67 | 20 | 44 |
| 2 | 2022-10-19 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | DET | ORL | 1393.525172 | 1366.089249 | 0.675590 | 0.324410 | ... | NaN | 1308.969909 | 1349.865183 | 0.563270 | 0.436730 | 113.0 | 109.0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | 2022-10-19 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | IND | WAS | 1399.201934 | 1440.077372 | 0.584275 | 0.415725 | ... | NaN | 1462.352663 | 1472.018225 | 0.599510 | 0.400490 | 107.0 | 114.0 | 37 | 28 | 33 |
| 4 | 2022-10-19 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | MEM | NYK | 1605.024654 | 1520.387218 | 0.743236 | 0.256764 | ... | NaN | 1612.012431 | 1549.908529 | 0.691851 | 0.308149 | 115.0 | 112.0 | 80 | 25 | 53 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 1225 | 2023-04-09 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | LAL | UTA | 1504.744770 | 1481.755984 | 0.669955 | 0.330045 | ... | NaN | 1575.335105 | 1467.649966 | 0.790236 | 0.209764 | NaN | NaN | 59 | 79 | 69 |
| 1226 | 2023-04-09 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | PHO | LAC | 1539.294205 | 1533.602843 | 0.647578 | 0.352422 | ... | NaN | 1594.886979 | 1568.837386 | 0.706779 | 0.293221 | NaN | NaN | 80 | 59 | 70 |
| 1227 | 2023-04-09 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | DEN | SAC | 1622.398993 | 1536.032304 | 0.745131 | 0.254869 | ... | NaN | 1660.865116 | 1520.232102 | 0.775272 | 0.224728 | NaN | NaN | 82 | 16 | 49 |
| 1228 | 2023-04-09 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | OKC | MEM | 1502.519844 | 1592.785654 | 0.514005 | 0.485995 | ... | NaN | 1446.987516 | 1649.512477 | 0.331692 | 0.668308 | NaN | NaN | 68 | 11 | 40 |
| 1229 | 2023-04-09 | 2023 | 0 | NaN | MIN | NOP | 1498.549000 | 1471.045258 | 0.675676 | 0.324324 | ... | NaN | 1593.842503 | 1523.044878 | 0.643574 | 0.356426 | NaN | NaN | 73 | 100 | 87 |
1230 rows × 27 columns
raptor_player
| player_name | player_id | season | poss | mp | raptor_box_offense | raptor_box_defense | raptor_box_total | raptor_onoff_offense | raptor_onoff_defense | ... | raptor_offense | raptor_defense | raptor_total | war_total | war_reg_season | war_playoffs | predator_offense | predator_defense | predator_total | pace_impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Precious Achiuwa | achiupr01 | 2023 | 1815 | 884 | -1.947087 | 0.588189 | -1.358898 | 1.773688 | -3.103238 | ... | -1.305684 | -0.150217 | -1.455902 | 0.578335 | 0.578335 | 0 | -1.746737 | 0.094785 | -1.651952 | -0.921260 |
| 1 | Steven Adams | adamsst01 | 2023 | 2391 | 1133 | -0.781226 | 3.871637 | 3.090410 | 5.017233 | -1.021186 | ... | 0.381481 | 3.032318 | 3.413799 | 3.569110 | 3.569110 | 0 | 0.002454 | 3.559242 | 3.561696 | 0.172480 |
| 2 | Bam Adebayo | adebaba01 | 2023 | 4050 | 1997 | -1.748401 | 3.075370 | 1.326969 | 3.106552 | 2.021386 | ... | -0.778060 | 3.013927 | 2.235867 | 5.059791 | 5.059791 | 0 | -0.544009 | 3.023692 | 2.479683 | -0.400677 |
| 3 | Ochai Agbaji | agbajoc01 | 2023 | 1308 | 610 | -1.122218 | -1.277537 | -2.399755 | 0.148745 | 0.130974 | ... | -0.949953 | -1.032549 | -1.982501 | 0.238324 | 0.238324 | 0 | -1.221923 | -2.094835 | -3.316758 | -0.227829 |
| 4 | Santi Aldama | aldamsa01 | 2023 | 2658 | 1232 | -0.881129 | 0.638420 | -0.242709 | -0.705088 | -1.474488 | ... | -0.901642 | 0.176482 | -0.725160 | 1.277881 | 1.277881 | 0 | -0.665268 | 1.255711 | 0.590443 | 0.407355 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 505 | McKinley Wright IV | wrighmc01 | 2023 | 427 | 206 | -2.309795 | 0.140190 | -2.169606 | -4.690802 | -2.747202 | ... | -2.971625 | -0.439241 | -3.410866 | -0.069261 | -0.069261 | 0 | -3.822731 | -1.015922 | -4.838653 | -0.285504 |
| 506 | Thaddeus Young | youngth01 | 2023 | 1567 | 758 | -1.368647 | 1.980380 | 0.611733 | -2.022035 | -2.409291 | ... | -1.609660 | 1.183832 | -0.425828 | 0.901992 | 0.901992 | 0 | -1.345448 | 1.738224 | 0.392775 | 0.355125 |
| 507 | Trae Young | youngtr01 | 2023 | 4140 | 1907 | 5.954660 | -1.515906 | 4.438755 | 1.933012 | -0.994529 | ... | 5.437224 | -1.482502 | 3.954722 | 6.720606 | 6.720606 | 0 | 5.540542 | -2.241654 | 3.298887 | 3.053295 |
| 508 | Cody Zeller | zelleco01 | 2023 | 97 | 47 | -3.214858 | -5.939772 | -9.154631 | 0.030709 | 8.145724 | ... | -2.698186 | -3.348513 | -6.046699 | -0.078376 | -0.078376 | 0 | -1.024169 | -4.187561 | -5.211730 | -0.865123 |
| 509 | Ivica Zubac | zubaciv01 | 2023 | 3529 | 1734 | -2.903855 | 1.062315 | -1.841540 | -0.410775 | -3.436995 | ... | -2.548307 | 0.173025 | -2.375282 | 0.328859 | 0.328859 | 0 | -3.381719 | 0.884100 | -2.497619 | -0.807154 |
510 rows × 21 columns
raptor_team
| player_name | player_id | season | season_type | team | poss | mp | raptor_box_offense | raptor_box_defense | raptor_box_total | ... | raptor_offense | raptor_defense | raptor_total | war_total | war_reg_season | war_playoffs | predator_offense | predator_defense | predator_total | pace_impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Precious Achiuwa | achiupr01 | 2023 | RS | TOR | 1815 | 884 | -1.947087 | 0.588189 | -1.358898 | ... | -1.305684 | -0.150217 | -1.455902 | 0.578335 | 0.578335 | 0 | -1.746737 | 0.094785 | -1.651952 | -0.921260 |
| 1 | Steven Adams | adamsst01 | 2023 | RS | MEM | 2391 | 1133 | -0.781226 | 3.871637 | 3.090410 | ... | 0.381481 | 3.032318 | 3.413799 | 3.569110 | 3.569110 | 0 | 0.002454 | 3.559242 | 3.561696 | 0.172480 |
| 2 | Bam Adebayo | adebaba01 | 2023 | RS | MIA | 4050 | 1997 | -1.748401 | 3.075370 | 1.326969 | ... | -0.778060 | 3.013927 | 2.235867 | 5.059791 | 5.059791 | 0 | -0.544009 | 3.023692 | 2.479683 | -0.400677 |
| 3 | Ochai Agbaji | agbajoc01 | 2023 | RS | UTA | 1308 | 610 | -1.122218 | -1.277537 | -2.399755 | ... | -0.949953 | -1.032549 | -1.982501 | 0.238324 | 0.238324 | 0 | -1.221923 | -2.094835 | -3.316758 | -0.227829 |
| 4 | Santi Aldama | aldamsa01 | 2023 | RS | MEM | 2658 | 1232 | -0.881129 | 0.638420 | -0.242709 | ... | -0.901642 | 0.176482 | -0.725160 | 1.277881 | 1.277881 | 0 | -0.665268 | 1.255711 | 0.590443 | 0.407355 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 562 | McKinley Wright IV | wrighmc01 | 2023 | RS | DAL | 427 | 206 | -2.309795 | 0.140190 | -2.169606 | ... | -2.971625 | -0.439241 | -3.410866 | -0.069261 | -0.069261 | 0 | -3.822731 | -1.015922 | -4.838653 | -0.285504 |
| 563 | Thaddeus Young | youngth01 | 2023 | RS | TOR | 1567 | 758 | -1.368647 | 1.980380 | 0.611733 | ... | -1.609660 | 1.183832 | -0.425828 | 0.901992 | 0.901992 | 0 | -1.345448 | 1.738224 | 0.392775 | 0.355125 |
| 564 | Trae Young | youngtr01 | 2023 | RS | ATL | 4140 | 1907 | 5.954660 | -1.515906 | 4.438755 | ... | 5.437224 | -1.482502 | 3.954722 | 6.720606 | 6.720606 | 0 | 5.540542 | -2.241654 | 3.298887 | 3.053295 |
| 565 | Cody Zeller | zelleco01 | 2023 | RS | MIA | 97 | 47 | -3.214858 | -5.939772 | -9.154631 | ... | -2.698186 | -3.348513 | -6.046699 | -0.078376 | -0.078376 | 0 | -1.024169 | -4.187561 | -5.211730 | -0.865123 |
| 566 | Ivica Zubac | zubaciv01 | 2023 | RS | LAC | 3529 | 1734 | -2.903855 | 1.062315 | -1.841540 | ... | -2.548307 | 0.173025 | -2.375282 | 0.328859 | 0.328859 | 0 | -3.381719 | 0.884100 | -2.497619 | -0.807154 |
567 rows × 23 columns
We can use the various statistics on players and teams, including raptor_box_offense, raptor_box_defense, pace_impact, etc. to see which statistics are a good predictor of results.